April 1st, 1946 13:00 hours
White House briefing room
Mr. President thank you for your time. I have just a few facts for you today. My purpose is to inform you of an imminent threat. We believe that our former ally, the USSR, is planning a sneak attack. We believe that the attack will start on or before May 15th, 1946.
We have discovered a spy ring in Los Alamos, NM and in other Manhattan Project facilities. We fear that certain facts have been passed on to the NKVD and from there to Stalin himself. These facts include
1. The actual number of functional Mark III atomic bombs.
2. The time it takes to assemble these bombs.
3. The exact weight and configuration of these bombs.
4. The number of assembly teams available and their locations and identities
5. The number of specially designed B29 bombers that can carry the devices.
6. The number and location of the pits needed to load the devices into the bomber.
7. How many hours of shelf life these devises have before they have to be disassembled and then reassembled again.
What this means is that Stalin may no longer fear the Atomic bomb in its present form. He now knows how vulnerable these devices and the bombers that deliver them are.
We also have reason to believe that he is in possession of information as to how many devices our own military believes is necessary to defeat the Soviet Army. The lowest estimate is in the order of 70 and all 70 must be 100 percent efficient. So in reality this means at least 140 devices minimum are needed.
What was that sir? Oh yes we can certainly fill you in on the 7 facts.
1. We only have 4 devices. Yes that is correct sir only 4. We had 6 but of course we used 2 on Japan.
2. It takes over 2 days to assemble the device.
3. The two different models weight 8,900 and 10,000 lbs each. Yes sir they are very large and that is why we need the pits to load them.
4. Currently we only have 2 trained assembly teams and as I told you earlier they have been put out of action for at least 6 months.
5. We have 12 Silver Plate B29s that are capable of loading the Mark III atomic bomb.
6. The two pits we have are in the Okinawa and England.
7. The devices have to be use within 48 hours of assembly.
Some other factors to consider that we believe the Soviets are aware of.
We currently have 22 divisions in Europe. The British have 12 and the French 8. Almost all are at half strength. Even a relatively small force of 60 full strength Soviet divisions would cut through our lines like a hot knife through butter. Our air force is in better shape with 10,000 front line aircraft worldwide.
Our demobilization effort was wildly successful. Five months after VJ Day 8.5 million Allied soldiers had been demobilized. As you will recall sir that when you tried to slow up the demobilization there were riots in some of our units. Our soldiers want to get home and go back to school on the GI Bill.
In contrast our estimates are that the Soviets have 66 full strength divisions that can attack at anytime. Within 30 days they can mobilize a total of 273 war strength divisions and by D-day + 60 they can deploy 270 divisions in Europe, 42 in the Middle East and 49 in the Far East. They have over 14,000 frontline aircraft in service currently.
Their satellites states have 84 of what we would consider 2nd line divisions with another 850 aircraft. More than enough to attack Greece and Italy.
In summary Mr. President we are up to our ears in alligators.
Yes sir I know its a lot to comprehend. Yes sir we'll talk again tomorrow so you have a chance to digest the report and its ramifications.